Presidential advisor Michael McFaul, senior director for Russia and Eurasian affairs at the National Security Council, and former FSI deputy director and director of CDDRL, joined other Obama administration officials to preview the president's July trip to Russia, Italy, and Ghana. In a July 1 conference call from Washington, D.C., McFaul, along with Deputy National Security Advisors Denis McDonough and Michael Froman, outlined major issues President Obama will address with Russian president Dmitri Medvedev, including a more substantive U.S. relationship with the Russian government and Russian society, a follow-on agreement to the START Treaty, energy issues, NATO expansion and missile defense.
Michael McFaul discusses President Obama's July trip to Russia, Italy, and Ghana
MR. MCDONOUGH: The delegation will arrive in Moscow on the morning of July 6th. That's next Monday. During the course of the day on the 6th, the president will have a private and a working meeting with President Medvedev. He will have a -- hold a press conference that afternoon in Moscow, after the meetings with President Medvedev. Then he and the first lady will have dinner on Monday evening with Mr. and Mrs. -- President and Mrs. Medvedev. They'll overnight in Moscow and, the next morning, will have breakfast with Prime Minister Putin, will have a meeting with former President Gorbachev.
The president will give a major speech at the New Economic School that afternoon, on U.S.-Russia relations. And then the president will hold meetings with a variety of Russian political/business leaders, during the course of that afternoon.
That will be on -- through the course of the 7th. Then we'll overnight again on the 7th in Moscow and head -- leaving the next morning from Moscow to Rome....
MR. MCFAUL: So -- this is Mike McFaul. Let me just say briefly what we plan to do while we're in Moscow. As I'm sure you all know, the president made very clear that he wanted to establish a different kind of relationship with Russia. He's used the metaphor of reset to describe what we're trying to do.
I'm using the word "substance," as opposed to "good" or "bad" or "indifferent."In London, on April 1st, when the two presidents met, they established a set of aspirations for how we can have a more substantive relationship with Russia. And notice I'm using the word "substance," as opposed to "good" or "bad" or "indifferent."
We want to actually do real business with the Russians on things that matter to our national security and our prosperity.
We have been working on a series of agreements and statements. Most of the focus in the press has been on the post-START agreement, and at the meeting -- the formal meeting that the two presidents have in the Kremlin on the first day, we will hear reports of where our negotiators are at. That -- the START treaty expires in December, so we are under the gun to try to get something to replace it by the end of the year.
But I want to emphasize that we'll be talking about many, many more things and other agreements and statements that we want to try to get done, both in this meeting and in the coming months and years, in dealing with our Russian counterparts, dealing, again, on all the issues -- Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea, nonproliferation, European security -- all the issues that matter in terms of American security and prosperity and the security of our allies.
So that will be a wide-ranging discussion and a kind of report on where we've gotten so far in terms of trying to establish this new relationship, more substantive relationship with the Russian government.
On the second day, to -- just to kind of -- I would just summarize it as the following: that as we reset relations with the Russian government, we also want to reset relations with Russian society.
I would just summarize it as the following: that as we reset relations with the Russian government, we also want to reset relations with Russian society.
And virtually the whole day, with the exception of the meeting with Prime Minister Putin in the morning, will be devoted to events and different organizations, business leaders, as Denis has already said, various political and civil-society leaders, to try to establish a direct relationship with the Russian people as well.
And the idea here is that this is not 1974. This is not just where we go over and we do an arms-control agreement with the Soviets, but that we have a multidimensional relationship with the Russian government and with the Russian people. And that's what we're going to try to begin to establish in this first substantive discussion that we have with the Russian government, and then the follow-up events with different parts of Russian society....
Q Hi. Thanks, you-all, for doing the call. Two quick topics for Mike McFaul on Moscow. Could you elaborate a bit on what the president would like to accomplish on the START Treaty? I know that you said there will be many other topics, but what specifically should we expect there? Was he going to get down to an agreement to 1,500 at more of a broad framework? What should we expect?....
MR. MCFAUL: So on the follow-on agreement to the START Treaty -- and guys, we've got to figure out what we're going to call this thing; we need to come up with a name -- the follow-on treaty, I would just say this. We are -- we just launched these negotiations very recently. We released the negotiating instructions on April 1st. We are working through -- and I don't want to get into the details, but it's a very complex treaty for a couple of reasons that are important.
One is, it involves real verification procedures. This is what we were not doing recently, in the last eight years. So we are going to have to work through those, and with new technology. That requires a lot of heavy lifting. And you can't get to the numbers that you're talking about until you know what you can verify and what not, because of the counting procedures that go with that.
Second, we agreed that it'll be a treaty that will limit delivery vehicles as well as warheads. And the relationship between those two numbers is quite complicated because the Russian forces are structured in a different way than our forces.
So you know, whether it's -- it's way too early to talk about whether it's 1,500 or a different number. I do know that it'll be below the levels that were in the Moscow treaty, which were 1,700 to 2,000. And I would just remind you that we're at the high end, of course. Whenever you see a range, we're always at a higher end.
So whether, you know, we're going to see progress on all those other things -- and my guess is, we'll get around to concrete numbers right towards the end of negotiating a treaty, because it depends on what you count. You have to get those things right first....
Q Hi, everyone. Thank you for doing this call. I've got two questions here. The first is, what kinds of energy issues will the president be discussing with Medvedev and Putin in Moscow?....
MR. MCFAUL: So on energy issues, obviously, for both the meeting with President Medvedev and for Prime Minister Putin, it's a major topic, both because of Russia's role as a supplier of energy -- oil and gas -- but also in terms of Russia's role in terms of becoming a more energy-efficient country as we look to do things on climate change that I'll let Mike talk about.
To -- again, I -- given what Denis just said, I don't want to talk about deliverables and agreements on those issues, but especially for the prime minister, Mr. Putin, this is a subject that he's focused a great deal of attention on, and we're going in there to talk about how we want to do things in cooperation with Russia.
In particular, we want to have conversations about diversification of supplies out of Russia and through the region in a way that it's not thought about in a zero-sum way.
And second, we want to talk just more generally about our national interest.
I think there's a big problem in U.S.-Russian relations now, and has been for some time, in that if you look at Russian public opinion, what Russian elites say and even some of their leaders, they think of the world in zero-sum terms. The United States is considered an adversary. I'm sure many would use harsher words among themselves when they talk about us. And they think of that -- that our number- one objective in the world is to make Russia weaker, to surround Russia, to do things that make us stronger and Russia weaker.
I think what you're going to hear when President Obama is in Moscow -- that that is not the way that he sees the relationship, that there are lots of interests that we have, and we're going to speak about them very explicitly, both privately and publicly, when he gives his speech. And then he's going to pivot to those and say: Well, this is our interest in fighting terrorism, this is our interest in energy efficiency and dealing with climate change, these are our interests in dealing with Iran. Is there anything here that I've just said that in any way is negative in terms of Russia's own interests and Russians' own interests in terms of their security and prosperity?
And that pertains very much to the question that you talked about in terms of energy issues. It's not, in our view, a zero-sum game; that if it's two points for Russia, it's negative-two for us; that there are ways that we can cooperate to advance our interest and at the same time do things with the Russians that are good for them as well....
Q And for Mike McFaul, on Russia, what is the president prepared -- what kind of reassurances is the president prepared to offer Russia, on kind of the two stickiest points: NATO expansion for Ukraine and Georgia and the third missile site, missile defense site, in Eastern Europe?....
MR. MCFAUL: This is Mike McFaul. On NATO expansion and on missile defense, I would just say this, that we're definitely not going to use the world "reassure" in the way that we talk about these things. We're not going to reassure or give or trade, you know, anything with the Russians regarding NATO expansion or missile defense.
Rather -- our approach is different than that. We're going to define our national interest, and by that I also mean the interests of our allies in Europe and with the -- with reference to these two particular questions. We're going to talk about them very frankly, as we did in April when we first met with President Medvedev. And then we're going to see if there are ways that we can have Russia cooperate on those things that we define as our national interest.
we're going to see if there are ways that we can have Russia cooperate on those things that we define as our national interest.We don't want to trade with them. We actually think that if you frame it that way, you're going to do a lot more business than in other ways.
So in particular, to your questions about NATO expansion, we've been very clear about NATO expansion, that the door is open, the principles have been laid out well before our administration, we have not messed with those at all. If countries meet the criteria, if they do the reforms that qualify, if the people of those countries want to join NATO and if they provide security to the alliance -- let's remember, this is not just an American decision; this is an alliance decision -- then the negotiation is open. And that pertains to Georgia and Ukraine and other countries in the region.
We have a -- commissions, as you know, with both Georgia and Ukraine to work to get them, you know, along the path to become a more active, cooperative member with NATO well before they become members. And I would remind you that the vice president is traveling two weeks later to those two countries as a signal of our support that we are not in any way, in the name of the reset, abandoning our very close relationships with these two democracies, Ukraine and Georgia.
With regard to missile defense, as you know, we have a review that's under way right now. It's a congressionally mandated review, but we'd be doing it anyway, because we're reviewing all policies. And the way I understand that review, we want to enhance missile defense in Europe and around the world as it relates to real threats.
And by "real threats," I mean countries like Iran and not Russia. But we also have to do it in ways to make sure that it works and it's affordable, as the president's said many times before.
We believe that when you think about enhancing missile defense in that part of the world, that Russia could play a very -- a role that would enhance their security as well. And when we're in Moscow, we're going to talk in those terms, not abandoning the third site in order to do a deal in Russia. That is a formulation we just don't use at all.
But we want to enhance European missile defense and, you know, it turns out that Russia's right there. If you look at the geography and you look at the assets that they have, we believe that there are things that we could do together that would enhance American security, enhance the security of our European allies and enhance the security of Russia....
Q Yes, good afternoon. I wanted to ask a question. Do you think the president is going to meet people from Novaya Gazeta, the paper of Anna Politkovskaya, while he's in Moscow? And the second thing: What's your goal regarding Iran at the G-8?
MR. MCFAUL: With regard to Novaya Gazeta, the president will do an interview with Novaya Gazeta. He committed to do that. As you probably know, President Medvedev did an interview with Novaya Gazeta. It was communicated to us through various channels. We all thought it would be a good idea if President Obama did that. And he will do that. And that should be on newsstands by the time we get to Moscow....
MR. MCFAUL: Can I just add one more thing about Novaya Gazeta, because I think you may have been implying a different thing that I should have mentioned. On the second day in Moscow, as I alluded to in my opening remarks, he'll have a series of meetings with nongovernmental organizations, media representatives -- in other words, all of those that are dealing with issues of democracy, independent media, rule of law.
And I would like to underscore a point that Denis made. Remember in the Prague speech, the Prague speech was about nonproliferation, but he also talked about the small countries and the role that they can play. He then went to Cairo to talk -- in terms of, you know, change for freedom and democracy. He went to Cairo, said that. He will do -- I suspect he will -- I shouldn't say I suspect; I anticipate he will talk about such issues in his speech in Moscow and when he goes on to Accra. So -- one of those themes that I think will be consistent in all four places in different venues. It's not the only theme, but it will be a theme that will be consistent throughout the four speeches.



